Abstract
Although the benefit of screening mammography for women over 69 has not been established, it is generally agreed that screening recommendations for older women should be individualized based on health status and breast cancer risk. However, statistical models to assess breast cancer risk have not been previously evaluated in this age group. In this study, the original Gail model and three more recent models that include mammographic breast density as a risk factor were applied to a cohort of 19,779 Vermont women aged 70 and older. Women were followed for an average of 7.1 years and 821 developed breast cancer. The predictive accuracy of each risk model was measured by its c-statistic and associations between individual risk factors and breast cancer risk were assessed by Cox regression. C-statistics were 0.54 (95% CI = 0.52–0.56) for the Gail model, 0.54 (95% CI = 0.51–0.56) for the Tice modification of the Gail model, 0.55 (95% CI = 0.53–0.58) for a model developed by Barlow and 0.55 (95% CI = 0.53–0.58) for a Vermont model. These results indicate that the models are not useful for assessing risk in women aged 70 and older. Several risk factors in the models were not significantly associated with outcome in the cohort, while others were significantly related to outcome but had smaller relative risks than estimated by the models. Age-related attenuation of the effects of some risk factors makes the prediction of breast cancer in older women particularly difficult.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Altekruse SF, Kosary CL, Krapcho M, Neyman N, Aminou R, Waldron W, Ruhl J, Howlader N, Tatalovich Z, Cho H, Mariotto A, Eisner MP, Lewis DR, Cronin K, Chen HS, Feuer EJ, Stinchcomb DG, Edwards BK (2002) SEER cancer statistics review, 1975–2007. National Cancer Institute, Bethesda
Harrison RV, Janz NK, Wolfe RA, Tedeschi PJ, Huang X, McMahon LF Jr (2003) 5-Year mammography rates and associated factors for older women. Cancer 97:1147–1155
Jerant AF, Franks P, Jackson JE, Doescher MP (2004) Age-related disparities in cancer screening: analysis of 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data. Ann Fam Med 2:481–487
Kagay CR, Quale C, Smith-Bindman R (2006) Screening mammography in the American elderly. Am J Prev Med 31:142–149
McCarthy EP, Burns RB, Freund KM et al (2000) Mammography use, breast cancer stage at diagnosis, survival among older women. J Am Geriatr Soc 48:1226–1233
Randolph WM, Goodwin JS, Mahnken JD, Freeman JL (2002) Regular mammography use is associated with elimination of age-related disparities in size and stage of breast cancer at diagnosis. Ann Intern Med 137:783–790
Yancik R, Ries LG, Yates JW (1989) Breast cancer in aging women. A population-based study of contrasts in stage, surgery, and survival. Cancer 63:976–981
U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (2009) Screening for breast cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement. Ann Intern Med 151:716–726, W-236
Smith RA, Saslow D, Sawyer KA, Burke W, Costanza ME, Evans WP (2003) American Cancer Society guidelines for breast cancer screening: update 2003. CA Cancer J Clin 53:141–169
American Geriatric Society Clinical Practice Committee (2000) Breast cancer screening in older women: AGS position statement. J Am Geriatr Soc 48:842–844
Takahashi PY, Okhravi HR, Lim LS, Kasten MJ (2004) Preventive health care in the elderly population: a guide for practicing physicians. Mayo Clin Proc 79:416–427
Gail MH, Brinton LA, Byar DP, Corle DK, Green SB, Shairer C, Mulvihill JJ (1989) Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually. J Natl Cancer Inst 81:1879–1886
Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, Anderson S, Redmond CK, Benichou J, Wieand HS (1999) Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst 91:1541–1548
McCormack VA, dos Santos Silva I (2006) Breast density and parenchymal patterns as markers of breast cancer risk: a meta-analysis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 15:1159–1169
Benichou J, Byrne C, Capece LA, Carroll LE, Hurt-Mullen K, Pee DY, Salane M, Schairer C, Gail MH (2003) Secular stability and reliability of measurements of the percentage of dense tissue on mammograms. Cancer Detect Prev 27:266–274
Chen J, Pee D, Ayyagari R, Graubard B, Schairer C, Byrne C, Benichou J, Gail MH (2006) Projecting absolute invasive breast cancer risk in white women with a model that includes mammographic density. J Natl Cancer Inst 98:1215–1226
American College of Radiology (ACR) (2003) Breast imaging reporting and data system, 4th edn. American College of Radiology, Reston, Virginia
Tice JA, Cummings SR, Ziv E, Kerlikowske K (2005) Mammographic breast density and the Gail model for breast cancer risk prediction in a screening population. Breast Cancer Res Treat 94:115–122
Barlow WE, White E, Ballard-Barbash R, Vacek PM, Titus-Ernstoff L, Carney PA et al (2006) Prospective breast cancer risk prediction model for women undergoing screening mammography. J Natl Cancer Inst 98:1204–1214
Rockhill B, Spiegelman D, Byrne C, Hunter DJ, Colditz GA ((2001)) Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention. J Natl Cancer Inst 93:358–366
Spiegelman D, Colditz GA, Hunter D, Hertzmark E (1994) Validation of the Gail et al. model for predicting individual breast cancer risk. J Natl Cancer Inst 86:600–607
Amir E, Evans DG, Shenton A, Lalloo F, Moran A, Boggis C, Wilson M, Howell A (2003) Evaluation of breast cancer risk assessment packages in the family history evaluation and screening programme. J Med Genet 40:807–814
Kaur JS, Roubidoux MA, Sloan J, Novotny P (2004) Can the Gail model be useful in American Indian and Alaska Native populations? Cancer 100:906–912
MacKarem G, Roche CA, Hughes KS (2001) The effectiveness of the Gail model in estimating risk for development of breast cancer in women under 40 years of age. Breast J 7:34–39
Vacek PM, Geller BM (2004) A prospective study of breast cancer risk using routine mammographic breast density measurements. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 13:715–722
Geller BM, Worden JK, Ashley JA, Oppenheimer RG, Weaver DL (1996) Multipurpose statewide breast cancer surveillance system: the Vermont experience. J Regist Manag 23:168–174
Ballard-Barbash R, Taplin SH, Yankaskas BC, Ernster VL, Rosenberg RD, Carney PA et al (1997) Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium: a national mammography screening and outcomes database. AJR Am J Roentgenol 169:1001–1008
McKian KP, Reynolds CA, Visscher DW, Nassar A, Radisky DC, Vierkant RA et al (2009) Novel breast tissue feature strongly associated with risk of breast cancer. J Clin Oncol 27:5893–5898
Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer (2001) Familial breast cancer: a collaborative reanalysis of individual data form 52 epidemiological studies including 58209 women with breast cancer and 101986 women without the disease. Lancet 358:1389–1399
van den Brandt PA, Spiegelman D, Yaun SS, Adami HO, Beeson L, Folsom AR et al (2000) Pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies on height, weight, and breast cancer risk. Am J Epidemiol 152:514–527
Boyd N, Martin L, Stone J, Little L, Minkin S, Yaffe M (2002) A longitudinal study of the effects of menopause on mammographic features. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 11:1048–1053
Kerlikowske K, Ichikawa L, Miglioretti DL, Buist DS, Vacek PM, Smith-Bindman R, Yankaskas B, Carney PA, Ballard-Barbash R (2007) Longitudinal measurement of clinical mammographic breast density to improve estimation of breast cancer risk. J Natl Cancer Inst 99:386–395
van Gils CH, Hendriks JH, Holland R, Karssemeijer N, Straatman H, Verbeek AL (1999) Changes in mammographic breast density and concomitant changes in breast cancer risk. Eur J Cancer Prev 8:509–515
Abramson RG, Mavi A, Cermik T, Basu S, Wehrli NE, Houseni M et al (2007) Age-related structural and functional changes in the breast: multimodality correlation with digital mammography, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and positron emission tomography. Semin Nucl Med 37:146–153
Pankratz VS, Hartmann LC, Degnim AC, Vierkant RA, Ghosh K, Vachon CM et al (2008) Assessment of the accuracy of the Gail model in women with atypical hyperplasia. J Clin Oncol 26:5374–5379
Gail M, Rimer B (1998) Risk-based recommendations for mammographic screening for women in their forties. J Clin Oncol 16:3105–3114
Kerlikowske K (2009) Evidence-based breast cancer prevention: the importance of individual risk. Ann Intern Med 151:750–752
Walter LC, Covinsky KE (2001) Cancer screening in elderly patients: a framework for individualized decision making. JAMA 285:2750–2756
Acknowledgment
This study was funded by grant KG090134 from Susan G. Komen for the Cure.
Conflict of interest
The authors have no commercial associations that might pose a conflict of interest.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Vacek, P.M., Skelly, J.M. & Geller, B.M. Breast cancer risk assessment in women aged 70 and older. Breast Cancer Res Treat 130, 291–299 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-011-1576-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-011-1576-1