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Estimated Numbers of Men and Women Infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico

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Abstract

Tijuana, Mexico, just south of San Diego, California, is located by the busiest land border crossing in the world. Although UNAIDS considers Mexico to be a country of “low prevalence, high risk,” recent surveillance data among sentinel populations in Tijuana suggests HIV prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of men and women aged 15 to 49 years infected with HIV in Tijuana. Gender and age-specific estimates of the Tijuana population were obtained from the 2000 Mexican census. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for at-risk groups were obtained from published reports, community based studies, and data from the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA). Age-specific fertility rates for Mexico were used to derive the number of low and high-risk pregnant women. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. A high growth scenario based on current HIV prevalence and a conservative, low growth estimate were determined. A total of 686,600 men and women in Tijuana were aged 15 to 49 years at the time of the 2000 census. Considering both scenarios, the number of infected persons ranged from 1,803 to 5,472 (HIV prevalence: 0.26 to 0.80%). The majority of these persons were men (>70%). The largest number of infected persons were MSM (N = 1,146 to 3,300) and IDUs (N = 147 to 650). Our data suggest that up to one in every 125 persons aged 15–49 years in Tijuana is HIV-infected. Interventions to reduce ongoing spread of HIV are urgently needed.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge donor support for the Harold Simon Chair in International Health and Cross-Cultural Medicine, support from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA019829), the UCSD Center for AIDS Research (P30 AI36214-06), and NIH grant R01MH65849. Special thanks to Dr. Peter Hartsock of the National Institute on Drug Abuse for his assistance with this work. Dr. Hogg is supported by grant K01DA020364 and NIH Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (5 T32 AI07384) administered through the UCSD Center for AIDS Research. Dr. Hogg is supported by the Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research.

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Correspondence to Kimberly C. Brouwer.

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Brouwer, Strathdee, and Hogg are with the Division of International Health & Cross-Cultural Medicine, Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, 9500 Gilman Drive,MC0622, La Jolla, San Diego, CA 93093-0622, USA; Magis-Rodríguez, Bravo-García, and Gayet are with the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA), Secretaria de Salud, Mexico City,México; Patterson is with the Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA; Bertozzi is with the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México; Gayet is with the Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO), México, México; Hogg is with the Bristish Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.

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Brouwer, K.C., Strathdee, S.A., Magis-Rodríguez, C. et al. Estimated Numbers of Men and Women Infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico. JURH 83, 299–307 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-005-9027-0

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