PUBLIC HEALTHMortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics
Abstract
Prolonged cigarette smoking causes even more deaths from other diseases than from lung cancer. In developed countries, the absolute age-sex-specific lung cancer rates can be used to indicate the approximate proportions due to tobacco of deaths not only from lung cancer itself but also, indirectly, from vascular disease and from various other categories of disease. Even in the absence of direct information on smoking histories, therefore, national mortality from tobacco can be estimated approximately just from the disease mortality statistics that are available from all major developed countries for about 1985 (and for 1975 and so, by extrapolation, for 1995). The relation between the absolute excess of lung cancer and the proportional excess of other diseases can only be approximate, and so as not to overestimate the effects of tobacco it has been taken to be only half that suggested by a recent large prospective study of smoking and death among one million Americans. Application of such methods indicates that, in developed countries alone, annual deaths from smoking number about 0·9 million in 1965, 1·3 million in 1975, 1·7 million in 1985, and 2·1 million in 1995 (and hence about 21 million in the decade 1990-99: 5-6 million European Community, 5-6 million USA, 5 million former USSR, 3 million Eastern and other Europe, and 2 million elsewhere, [ie, Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand]). More than half these deaths will be at 35-69 years of age: during the 1990s tobacco will in developed countries cause about 30% of all deaths at 35-69 (making it the largest single cause of premature death) plus about 14% of all at older ages. Those killed at older ages are on average already almost 80 years old, however, and might have died soon anyway, but those killed by tobacco at 35-69 lose an average of about 23 years of life. At present just under 20% of all deaths in developed countries are attributed to tobacco, but this percentage is still rising, suggesting that on current smoking patterns just over 20% of those now living in developed countries will eventually be killed by tobacco (ie, about a quarter of a billion, out of a current total population of just under one and a quarter billion).
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Low-dose CT screening among never-smokers with or without a family history of lung cancer in Taiwan: a prospective cohort study
2024, The Lancet Respiratory MedicineIn Taiwan, lung cancers occur predominantly in never-smokers, of whom nearly 60% have stage IV disease at diagnosis. We aimed to assess the efficacy of low-dose CT (LDCT) screening among never-smokers, who had other risk factors for lung cancer.
The Taiwan Lung Cancer Screening in Never-Smoker Trial (TALENT) was a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study done at 17 tertiary medical centres in Taiwan. Eligible individuals had negative chest radiography, were aged 55–75 years, had never smoked or had smoked fewer than 10 pack-years and stopped smoking for more than 15 years (self-report), and had one of the following risk factors: a family history of lung cancer; passive smoke exposure; a history of pulmonary tuberculosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disorders; a cooking index of 110 or higher; or cooking without using ventilation. Eligible participants underwent LDCT at baseline, then annually for 2 years, and then every 2 years up to 6 years thereafter, with follow-up assessments at each LDCT scan (ie, total follow-up of 8 years). A positive scan was defined as a solid or part-solid nodule larger than 6 mm in mean diameter or a pure ground-glass nodule larger than 5 mm in mean diameter. Lung cancer was diagnosed through invasive procedures, such as image-guided aspiration or biopsy or surgery. Here, we report the results of 1-year follow-up after LDCT screening at baseline. The primary outcome was lung cancer detection rate. The p value for detection rates was estimated by the χ2 test. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between lung cancer incidence and each risk factor. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of LDCT screening were also assessed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02611570, and is ongoing.
Between Dec 1, 2015, and July 31, 2019, 12 011 participants (8868 females) were enrolled, of whom 6009 had a family history of lung cancer. Among 12 011 LDCT scans done at baseline, 2094 (17·4%) were positive. Lung cancer was diagnosed in 318 (2·6%) of 12 011 participants (257 [2·1%] participants had invasive lung cancer and 61 [0·5%] had adenocarcinomas in situ). 317 of 318 participants had adenocarcinoma and 246 (77·4%) of 318 had stage I disease. The prevalence of invasive lung cancer was higher among participants with a family history of lung cancer (161 [2·7%] of 6009 participants) than in those without (96 [1·6%] of 6002 participants). In participants with a family history of lung cancer, the detection rate of invasive lung cancer increased significantly with age, whereas the detection rate of adenocarcinoma in situ remained stable. In multivariable analysis, female sex, a family history of lung cancer, and age older than 60 years were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer and invasive lung cancer; passive smoke exposure, cumulative exposure to cooking, cooking without ventilation, and a previous history of chronic lung diseases were not associated with lung cancer, even after stratification by family history of lung cancer. In participants with a family history of lung cancer, the higher the number of first-degree relatives affected, the higher the risk of lung cancer; participants whose mother or sibling had lung cancer were also at an increased risk. A positive LDCT scan had 92·1% sensitivity, 84·6% specificity, a PPV of 14·0%, and a NPV of 99·7% for lung cancer diagnosis.
TALENT had a high invasive lung cancer detection rate at 1 year after baseline LDCT scan. Overdiagnosis could have occurred, especially in participants diagnosed with adenocarcinoma in situ. In individuals who do not smoke, our findings suggest that a family history of lung cancer among first-degree relatives significantly increases the risk of lung cancer as well as the rate of invasive lung cancer with increasing age. Further research on risk factors for lung cancer in this population is needed, particularly for those without a family history of lung cancer.
Ministry of Health and Welfare of Taiwan.
Estimations of smoking-attributable mortality in Spain at a regional level: comparison of two methods
2023, Annals of EpidemiologyTo estimate and discuss smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) for the 17 regions in Spain among the population aged ≥35 years in 2017, using two methods.
A descriptive analysis of SAM was conducted using two methods, the prevalence-independent method (PIM) and the prevalence-dependent method (PDM). Observed mortality was obtained from the National Institute of Statistics; smoking prevalence from three National Health Surveys; lung cancer mortality rates from the Cancer Prevention Study-II; and relative risks from five US cohorts. SAM and percentages of change were estimated for each region overall, by sex, age and cause of death.
In 2017, tobacco caused 56,203 deaths in Spain applying the PIM. Using the PDM the number of deaths was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.4–5.5) lower (53,825 deaths). Except in four regions, the PIM estimated a higher overall SAM and the maximum percentage of change was 18.6%. Overall percentages of change were higher for women (15.7% 95% CI: 12.6–19.0) and for cardiovascular diseases–diabetes mellitus (13.8%; 95% CI: 11.5–16.2).
At the national level, both methods estimate similar figures for SAM. However, the difference in estimates appears at the subnational level. Differences were higher in subgroups with lower smoking prevalence and for causes of death with periods of induction shorter than those for lung cancer.
Smoking-attributable mortality in Portugal and its regions in 2019
2023, PulmonologyTimely regional-specific estimates of smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) are crucial for healthcare planning and tobacco control advocacy. Currently, this information is lacking in Portugal. The aim of this study was to estimate SAM by region in 2019 among the Portuguese population aged ≥35 years.
SAM was estimated using an independent-prevalence method. Observed mortality was obtained from Portugal Statistics; lung cancer mortality rates in smokers and never-smokers from the Cancer Prevention Study I-II and updated relative risks from five contemporary US cohort studies. SAM was estimated for each NUTS-II region by sex, age, and cause of death. Crude SAM rates, sex and age-specific rates, and age-adjusted rates were calculated using the direct method.
In 2019, tobacco consumption caused 13,847 deaths, representing 12.3% of total mortality among the Portuguese population aged ≥35 years. Of the total SAM, 71.2% occurred in men and 22.2% in those under 65 years; 42.5% was due to cancer, 35.4% to cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, and 22.2% to respiratory diseases. SAM greatly varied among regions from 2.1% in Madeira to 36.2% in the North region. In men, cancer was the leading cause of death in all regions, while in women it was cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.
In Portugal, tobacco-mortality burden is high and varies significantly by region, sex and age. Therefore, estimates disaggregated by sociodemographic data and region may better support decision-makers while tailoring and implementing tobacco control policies addressing health population needs. The apparent lower tobacco burden among women and in some Portuguese regions may dramatically rise in the near future. This and the high SAM in Portugal, particularly in some regions, highlights the need to accelerate tobacco control both at national and regional levels.
Attributable mortality to tobacco consumption in Brazil, 1996-2019
2023, Gaceta SanitariaAnalizar la carga del consumo de tabaco en la mortalidad y en los años de esperanza de vida perdidos en población ≥35 años en Brasil en el periodo 1996-2019, e identificar cambios de tendencia en la mortalidad atribuida.
Para estimar la mortalidad atribuida se aplicó un método independiente de prevalencia que asume la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón como indicador indirecto del riesgo acumulado asociado al consumo de tabaco. La mortalidad atribuida se estima a partir de la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón y aplicando riesgos relativos de cinco cohortes estadounidenses. Se presentan la mortalidad atribuida, las tasas de mortalidad atribuida brutas y estandarizadas en global, por sexo, edad y causas de muerte. Se analizó la tendencia aplicando modelos de regresión joinpoint. Se calcularon los años de esperanza de vida perdidos a causa del tabaco.
Entre 1996 y 2019 el consumo de tabaco causó 2.389.831 muertes en Brasil. Las enfermedades cardiometabólicas fueron la primera causa de muerte en mujeres en todo el periodo y en hombres hasta 2015. Desde 2006, las tasas de mortalidad atribuida en los hombres, con independencia de la edad, muestran una tendencia decreciente, mientras que en las mujeres la evolución es diferente. Los años de esperanza de vida perdidos muestran un ligero descenso desde los primeros trienios y son más en los hombres.
El 8,5% de la mortalidad total en Brasil durante el periodo 1996-2019 se atribuye al consumo de tabaco. Es importante monitorizar la carga del consumo de tabaco en la mortalidad para fortalecer o implantar intervenciones frente al tabaquismo en Brasil.
To analyze the burden of tobacco consumption on mortality and years of life expectancy lost in population ≥35 years in Brazil in the period 1996-2019 and to identify trend changes in smoking-attributable mortality.
An independent prevalence method using the lung cancer mortality rate as a proxy for cumulative smoking risk was used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. Smoking-attributable mortality is estimated from the lung cancer mortality rate and applying relative risks from 5 US cohorts. Smoking-attributable mortality, crude and standardized attributed mortality rates are presented overall, by sex, age and causes of death. Trend analysis was performed by applying joinpoint regression models. Years of life expectancy lost due to tobacco were calculated.
Tobacco consumption caused 2,389,831 deaths in Brazil between 1996-2019. Cardiometabolic diseases were the leading cause of death in women throughout the period and in men until 2015. Since 2006, smoking-attributable mortality rates in men, regardless of age, show a decreasing trend while in females the evolution is different. The years of life expectancy lost show a slight decrease since the first triennia and are higher in men.
In Brazil, the 8.5% of total mortality between 1996-2019 is attributed to tobacco consumption. It is important to monitor the burden of the tobacco consumption on mortality in order to strengthen or implement interventions against smoking in Brazil.
Preparedness for healthy ageing and polysubstance use in long-term cannabis users: a population-representative longitudinal study
2022, The Lancet Healthy LongevityCannabis is often characterised as a young person's drug. However, people who began consuming cannabis in the 1970s and 1980s are no longer young and some have consumed it for many years. This study tested the preregistered hypothesis that long-term cannabis users show accelerated biological ageing in midlife and poorer health preparedness, financial preparedness, and social preparedness for old age.
In this longitudinal study, participants comprised a population-representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand, between April, 1972, and March, 1973, and followed to age 45 years. Cannabis, tobacco, and alcohol use and dependence were assessed at ages 18 years, 21 years, 26 years, 32 years, 38 years, and 45 years. Biological ageing and health, financial, and social preparedness for old age were assessed at age 45 years. Long-term cannabis users were compared using independent samples t tests with five groups: lifelong cannabis non-users, long-term tobacco users, long-term alcohol users, midlife recreational cannabis users, and cannabis quitters. In addition, regression analyses tested dose–response associations for continuously measured persistence of cannabis dependence from age 18 years to 45 years, with associations adjusted for sex, childhood socioeconomic status, childhood IQ, low childhood self-control, family substance dependence history, and persistence of alcohol, tobacco, and other illicit drug dependence.
Of 997 cohort members still alive at age 45 years, 938 (94%) were assessed at age 45 years. Long-term cannabis users showed statistically significant accelerated biological ageing and were less equipped to manage a range of later-life health, financial, and social demands than non-users. Standardised mean differences between long-term cannabis users and non-users were large: 0·70 (95% CI 0·46 to 0·94; p<0·0001) for biological ageing, –0·72 (–0·96 to –0·49, p<0·0001) for health preparedness, –1·08 (–1·31 to –0·85; p<0·0001) for financial preparedness, and –0·59 (–0·84 to –0·34, p<0·0001) for social preparedness. Long-term cannabis users did not fare better than long-term tobacco or alcohol users. Tests of dose–response associations suggested that cannabis associations could not be explained by the socioeconomic origins, childhood IQ, childhood self-control, and family substance-dependence history of long-term cannabis users. Statistical adjustment for long-term tobacco, alcohol, and other illicit drug dependence suggested that long-term cannabis users’ tendency toward polysubstance dependence accounted for their accelerated biological ageing and poor financial and health preparedness, although not for their poor social preparedness (β –0·10, 95% CI –0·18 to –0·02; p=0·017).
Long-term cannabis users are underprepared for the demands of old age. Although long-term cannabis use appears detrimental, the greatest challenge to healthy ageing is not use of any specific substance, but rather the long-term polysubstance use that characterises many long-term cannabis users. Substance-use interventions should include practical strategies for improving health and building financial and social capital for healthy longevity.
The National Institute on Aging and the UK Medical Research Council. The Dunedin Research Unit is supported by the New Zealand Health Research Council and the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
Methodological guidelines for the estimation of attributable mortality using a prevalence-based method: the STREAMS-P tool
2022, Journal of Clinical EpidemiologyThere is evidence of strong links between exposure to different risk factors and life-threatening diseases. Assessing the burden of a risk factor on the population's mortality due to a given disease provides a clear picture of these links. The estimation of attributable mortality to a risk factor is the most widely used procedure for doing this. Although different methods are available to estimate attributable mortality, the prevalence-based methodology is the most frequent. The main objective of this study is to develop guidelines and checklists to STrengthen the design and REporting of Attributable Mortality Studies using a Prevalence-based method (STREAMS-P) and also to assess the quality of an already published study which uses this methodology.
The design of the guideline and checklists has been done in two phases. A development phase, where we set recommendations based on the review of the literature, and a validation phase, where we validated our recommendations against other published studies that have estimated attributable mortality using a prevalence-based method.
We have developed and tested a guideline that includes the information required to perform a prevalence-based attributable mortality study to a given risk factor; a checklist of aspects that should be present when a report or a paper on attributable mortality is written or interpreted and a checklist of quality control criteria for reports or papers estimating attributable mortality.
To our knowledge, the STREAMS-P is the first set of criteria specifically created to assess the quality of such studies and it could be valuable for authors and readers interested in performing attributable mortality studies or interpreting their reliability.