Short paperImmunization coverage required to prevent outbreaks of dog rabies
Abstract
WHO recommends that 70% of dogs in a population should be immunized to eliminate or prevent outbreaks of rabies. This critical percentage (pc) has been established empirically from observations on the relationship between vaccination coverage and rabies incidence in dog populations around the world. Here, by contrast, we estimate pc by using epidemic theory, together with data available from four outbreaks in urban and rural areas of the USA, Mexico, Malaysia and Indonesia. From the rate of increase of cases at the beginning of these epidemics, we obtain estimates of the basic case reproduction number of infection, R0, in the range 1.62–2.33, implying that pc lies between 39% and 57%. The errors attached to these estimates of pc suggest that the recommended coverage of 70% would prevent a major outbreak of rabies on no fewer than 96.5% of occasions.
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Cited by (276)
Rabies is an acute zoonotic infectious disease caused by rabies virus. In 2015, the World Health Organization proposed the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies by 2030. In response to this goal positively, China has been dedicated to the control and elimination of rabies mainly caused by dogs, for nearly 10 years. By applying infectious disease dynamics, in this paper, we establish a dog-human rabies transmission model to forecast future epidemic trends of rabies, assess whether the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies cases in China can be achieved in 2030, and further evaluate and suggest the follow-up sustained preventive measures after the elimination of human rabies. By analyzing and simulating above dynamic model, it is concluded that rabies has been well controlled in China in recent years, but dog-induced human rabies cannot be eliminated by 2030 according to current situation. In addition, we propose to improve rabies control efforts by increasing the immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs, controlling the number of stray dogs and preventing the import of rabies virus in wild animals. Immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs which is currently less than 10% is far from requirement, and it needs to reach 50%–60% to meet the goal of 2030. Since it is difficult to immunize stray dogs, we suggest to control the number of stray dogs below 15.27 million to achieve the goal. If the goal of eliminating human rabies is reached in 2030, the essential immunization coverage needs to be maintained for 18 years to reduce the number of canine rabies cases to zero. Lastly, to prevent transmission of rabies virus from wild animals to dogs, the thresholds of the number of dogs and the immunization coverage rate of dogs after eliminating canine rabies cases are also discussed.
Rabies vaccination is mandatory in dogs in Thailand. In this study, shelter management quality and rabies immune status were evaluated by questionnaire and rabies virus neutralising antibody (RVNA) measurement. The questionnaire was designed to assess all relevant factors of shelter management, which could impact the rabies vaccine antibody response. Thirteen participating shelters were classified into 4 groups, namely group A (best), B (good), C (fair), and D (require improvement). Sera were collected from randomly selected dogs (n = 113) within 4 weeks after rabies re-vaccination from a representative shelter of group B, C and D. Sample from group A was not included in the study due to time limitation. Both the number of dogs with acceptable response (RVNA ≥ 0.5 IU/ml) and the RVNA titres were significantly higher in group B than group C and D. Our results indicate that the quality of shelter management could affect rabies immune status.
Incorporation of Escherichia coli heat-labile enterotoxin B subunit into rabies virus particles enhances its immunogenicity in mice and dogs
2023, Biosafety and HealthAlthough inactivated vaccines against rabies have the advantage of high safety, effective protection against rabies virus (RABV) infection often requires multiple, high-dose immunization. Incorporating a molecular adjuvant into the viral particles has been found to be a useful strategy to promote the immune effectiveness of inactivated vaccines. In this study, we constructed a recombinant virus, rCVS11-LTB, which chimerically expresses a molecular adjuvant heat-labile enterotoxin B subunit (LTB) protein on the surface of the RABV particles. Immunogenicity in vivo was found to be promoted by rCVS11-LTB through the activation of dendritic cells (DCs). Our results demonstrated that inactivated rCVS11-LTB was able to induce higher levels of virus-neutralizing antibodies (VNAs) in both mice and dogs than the parent virus rCVS11, to enhance the cellular immune response and T cell immune memory in mice, and was also able to provide 100% protection in mice from lethal doses of rabies virus, indicating its potential as a safe and effective inactivated rabies vaccine candidate.
Identifying high-risk areas for dog-mediated rabies using Bayesian spatial regression
2022, One HealthDespite ongoing control efforts, rabies remains an endemic zoonotic disease in many countries. Determining high-risk areas and the space-time patterns of rabies spread, as it relates to epidemiologically important factors, can support policymakers and program managers alike to develop evidence-based targeted surveillance and control programs. In this One Health approach which selected Thailand as the example site, the location-based risk of contracting dog-mediated rabies by both human and animal populations was quantified using a Bayesian spatial regression model. Specifically, a conditional autoregressive (CAR) Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression was fitted to the reported human and animal rabies case counts of each district, from the 2012–2017 period. The human population was used as an offset. The epidemiologically important factors hypothesized as risk modifiers and therefore tested as predictors included: number of dog bites/attacks, the population of dogs and cats, number of Buddhist temples, garbage dumps, animal vaccination, post-exposure prophylaxis, poverty, and shared administrative borders. Disparate sources of data were used to improve the estimated associations and predictions. Model performance was assessed using cross-validation. Results suggested that accounting for the association between human and animal rabies with number of dog bites/attacks, number of owned and un-owned dogs; shared country borders, number of Buddhist temples, poverty levels, and accounting for spatial dependence between districts, may help to predict the risk districts for dog-mediated rabies in Thailand. The fitted values of the spatial regression were mapped to illustrate the risk of dog-mediated rabies. The cross-validation indicated an adequate performance of the spatial regression model (AUC = 0.81), suggesting that had this spatial regression approach been used to identify districts at risk in 2015, the cases reported in 2016/17 would have been predicted with model sensitivity and specificity of 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. While active surveillance is ideal, this approach of using multiple data sources to improve risk estimation may inform current rabies surveillance and control efforts including determining rabies-free zones, and the roll-out of human post-exposure prophylaxis and anti-rabies vaccines for animals in determining high-risk areas.
Using causal loop analysis to explore pathways for zoonosis control in low-income setting: The case of dog rabies vaccination in Burkina Faso
2022, Preventive Veterinary MedicineDog vaccination is an effective pathway to control rabies if a minimum of 70% dog vaccination coverage is achieved. For more than six decades, dog vaccination has been adopted as part of the rabies control measures in Burkina Faso. However, the required vaccination coverage in canine population remains challenging and rabies endemic. This study describes the use of systems thinking to explore the dynamics arising from dog vaccination complexity and explain the possibles causes of low vaccination coverage in the dog population. In-depth interviews were conducted in three administrative regions and included various stakeholders. A thematic analysis was performed to analyze the obtained narratives. Subsequently, causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed, depicting the causes of low dog vaccination coverage. The CLDs were composed of reinforcing loops and balancing loops, visualizing how different variables including social, economic, technical, political and organizational factors that affect the implementation of rabies vaccination in the country are causally interrelated. Overall, the results revealed the importance of community awareness raising, strengthening the vaccination workforce, enhanced governance and leadership in the dynamics of dog vaccination. The study calls for wide consideration of all drivers and factors that may affect dog vaccination coverage, for the development of any rabies control strategy or vaccination program. Beyond the dog vaccination problem, the methods and findings from this study could be applied to other critical rabies-related questions such as postexposure prophylaxis, epidemiological surveillance, dog population management, laboratory diagnosis, and the One Health collaboration issues, to understand and improve rabies control.
Optimising rabies vaccination of dogs in India
2023, Epidemiology and Infection