Elsevier

Biomass and Bioenergy

Volume 25, Issue 2, August 2003, Pages 119-133
Biomass and Bioenergy

Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0961-9534(02)00191-5Get rights and content

Abstract

This study explores the range of future world potential of biomass for energy. The focus has been put on the factors that influence the potential biomass availability for energy purposes rather than give exact numbers. Six biomass resource categories for energy are identified: energy crops on surplus cropland, energy crops on degraded land, agricultural residues, forest residues, animal manure and organic wastes. Furthermore, specific attention is paid to the competing biomass use for material. The analysis makes use of a wide variety of existing studies on all separate categories. The main conclusion of the study is that the range of the global potential of primary biomass (in about 50 years) is very broad quantified at 33−1135EJy−1. Energy crops from surplus agricultural land have the largest potential contribution (0–988EJy−1). Crucial factors determining biomass availability for energy are: (1) The future demand for food, determined by the population growth and the future diet; (2) The type of food production systems that can be adopted world-wide over the next 50 years; (3) Productivity of forest and energy crops; (4) The (increased) use of bio-materials; (5) Availability of degraded land; (6) Competing land use types, e.g. surplus agricultural land used for reforestation.

It is therefore not “a given” that biomass for energy can become available at a large-scale. Furthermore, it is shown that policies aiming for the energy supply from biomass should take the factors like food production system developments into account in comprehensive development schemes.

Introduction

Biomass is seen as an interesting energy source for several reasons. The main reason is that bioenergy can contribute to sustainable development [1]. Biomass energy is interesting from an energy security perspective. Resources are often locally available and conversion into secondary energy carriers is feasible without high capital investments. Moreover, biomass energy can have a positive effect on degraded land by adding organic matter to the soil. Furthermore, biomass energy can play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, since when produced and utilised in a sustainable way, the use of biomass for energy offsets fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions. Since energy plantations may also create new employment opportunities in rural areas in development countries, it also contributes to the social aspect of sustainability. At present, biomass is mainly used as a traditional fuel (e.g. fuelwood, dung), contributing to about 38±10EJy−1. Modern biomass (e.g. fuel, electricity) to about 7EJy−1 [2]. In this study we include both traditional and modern biomass energy.

Many energy scenarios suggest large shares of biomass in the future energy system (e.g. [3], [4], [5], [6]). The availability of this biomass is not always separately analysed. Furthermore, large-scale utilisation will have large consequences for land demand and biomass infrastructure, which should be assessed. Many studies have been undertaken to assess the future biomass energy potential, e.g.: [4], [5], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19], [20].

To get insight in the main assumptions that have been made in these studies we have conducted an analysis of the approaches used to assess the global biomass energy potential (see also [21]). Overall, it has been concluded that the results vary widely. Furthermore, most of the investigated studies do not include all sources of biomass in competition with other land use functions. The studies are not always transparent in the procedure for calculating the energy potential. Insight in the factors that are of main importance of realising the investigated potential is therefore not always presented. Finally, many studies tend to neglect the competition between various land use functions and between the various applications of biomass residues [21]. Therefore, in this paper, we consider a different approach of exploring the biomass potential.

The main objectives of this paper are: (1) To gain insight in the factors that influences the potential of bioenergy in the long term. (2) To explore the theoretical ranges of the biomass energy potential on the longer term in a comprehensive way, including all key categories and factors. (3) To evaluate to what extent the potential of biomass supply can be influenced. This analysis focuses on a global scale. The chosen timeframe for this exercise is the year 2050.

In this paper we first describe the methodology applied (Section 2). Next, in 3 The potential for energy farming on agricultural land, 4 The potential supply of biomass residues the potential production of biomass is assessed. In Section 5, the potential future demand of biomass for production of materials is taken into account by evaluation of utilization, and applying economic projections, and resulting growth in demand, for the long term. Finally, the ranges found for land availability; biomass productivity levels, availability of biomass residues and the availability of organic wastes are translated into primary energy supply potentials (6 Integration and discussion, 7 Conclusions).

Section snippets

Biomass categories

First we define the concept ‘potential’ that is used in this paper. We are interested in an upper limit of the amount of biomass that can come available as (primary) energy supply without affecting the supply for food crops. This is defined as the geographical potential. As timeframe we take the longer term (2050 y).

We define our biomass supply system by dividing biomass production and use into different categories. These categories make the competition and synergy of the separated biomass

Availability of surplus agricultural land (Category I)

To assess the land areas available for production of biomass for energy use on surplus agricultural land, the future demand for land for food and fodder production has to be estimated. In order to do so, we use a study from Luyten that explores the potentials of food production on a global level [23], as the basis for the assessments. Several adaptations are made to the Luyten study, mainly regarding the land areas included. The adaptations can be done since the study by Luyten has been

Agricultural residues (Category III)

The availability of agricultural residues depends on the food and fodder production (see Section 3). The residues are either field based or process based (primary or secondary, see Fig. 1). The availability of field-based residues depends on the residue to product ratio and on the production system. Most studies included in the overview (Section 1) assume that about 25% of the total available agricultural residues can be recovered [5], [17], [18], [20]. Hall (1993) [12] presents the potential

Bio-material production (Category VII)

The biomass use for materials (‘biomaterials’) is analyzed in more detail, since it can be an important competing application of biomass for energy. Production of bio-materials can make sense from an energy and CO2 point of view because biomass can have a double benefit: its use can save fossil fuels by replacing other materials (e.g. oil feedstock in the petrochemical industry) and waste bio-materials can be used for energy and material recovery. In case bio-materials can be recycled several

Integration

The final range is composed by two extreme possible combinations (Table 9). The first combination, the overall lowest limit of the biomass potential, is composed of the lowest figure in categories I, II and the upper limit of category III, V and VI, minus the upper limit of the bio-materials. It is assumed that bio-materials compete for the energy crops, as well as the residues. Therefore, the potential processing residues from bio-materials (32EJy−1) are add to category VI. The highest range

Conclusions

The study presented analysis of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy on the long term. It is stressed that this study is explorative. The focus is not on the exact figure of the biomass energy potential, rather on the underlying factors influencing this potential. The analysis shows that the future geographical potential of biomass energy ranges from 35 to 1135EJy−1. The result is mainly determined by the potential of energy farming that is the result of land availability

Acknowledgements

Joep Luyten is kindly acknowledged for his support of Section 4. The authors furthermore thank Eric Kreileman (RIVM) for his help on Fig. 2. This work has been conducted with financial help of the Netherlands Agency for Energy and the Environmental (NOVEM).

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