Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy
Introduction
Biomass is seen as an interesting energy source for several reasons. The main reason is that bioenergy can contribute to sustainable development [1]. Biomass energy is interesting from an energy security perspective. Resources are often locally available and conversion into secondary energy carriers is feasible without high capital investments. Moreover, biomass energy can have a positive effect on degraded land by adding organic matter to the soil. Furthermore, biomass energy can play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, since when produced and utilised in a sustainable way, the use of biomass for energy offsets fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions. Since energy plantations may also create new employment opportunities in rural areas in development countries, it also contributes to the social aspect of sustainability. At present, biomass is mainly used as a traditional fuel (e.g. fuelwood, dung), contributing to about . Modern biomass (e.g. fuel, electricity) to about [2]. In this study we include both traditional and modern biomass energy.
Many energy scenarios suggest large shares of biomass in the future energy system (e.g. [3], [4], [5], [6]). The availability of this biomass is not always separately analysed. Furthermore, large-scale utilisation will have large consequences for land demand and biomass infrastructure, which should be assessed. Many studies have been undertaken to assess the future biomass energy potential, e.g.: [4], [5], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19], [20].
To get insight in the main assumptions that have been made in these studies we have conducted an analysis of the approaches used to assess the global biomass energy potential (see also [21]). Overall, it has been concluded that the results vary widely. Furthermore, most of the investigated studies do not include all sources of biomass in competition with other land use functions. The studies are not always transparent in the procedure for calculating the energy potential. Insight in the factors that are of main importance of realising the investigated potential is therefore not always presented. Finally, many studies tend to neglect the competition between various land use functions and between the various applications of biomass residues [21]. Therefore, in this paper, we consider a different approach of exploring the biomass potential.
The main objectives of this paper are: (1) To gain insight in the factors that influences the potential of bioenergy in the long term. (2) To explore the theoretical ranges of the biomass energy potential on the longer term in a comprehensive way, including all key categories and factors. (3) To evaluate to what extent the potential of biomass supply can be influenced. This analysis focuses on a global scale. The chosen timeframe for this exercise is the year 2050.
In this paper we first describe the methodology applied (Section 2). Next, in 3 The potential for energy farming on agricultural land, 4 The potential supply of biomass residues the potential production of biomass is assessed. In Section 5, the potential future demand of biomass for production of materials is taken into account by evaluation of utilization, and applying economic projections, and resulting growth in demand, for the long term. Finally, the ranges found for land availability; biomass productivity levels, availability of biomass residues and the availability of organic wastes are translated into primary energy supply potentials (6 Integration and discussion, 7 Conclusions).
Section snippets
Biomass categories
First we define the concept ‘potential’ that is used in this paper. We are interested in an upper limit of the amount of biomass that can come available as (primary) energy supply without affecting the supply for food crops. This is defined as the geographical potential. As timeframe we take the longer term (2050 y).
We define our biomass supply system by dividing biomass production and use into different categories. These categories make the competition and synergy of the separated biomass
Availability of surplus agricultural land (Category I)
To assess the land areas available for production of biomass for energy use on surplus agricultural land, the future demand for land for food and fodder production has to be estimated. In order to do so, we use a study from Luyten that explores the potentials of food production on a global level [23], as the basis for the assessments. Several adaptations are made to the Luyten study, mainly regarding the land areas included. The adaptations can be done since the study by Luyten has been
Agricultural residues (Category III)
The availability of agricultural residues depends on the food and fodder production (see Section 3). The residues are either field based or process based (primary or secondary, see Fig. 1). The availability of field-based residues depends on the residue to product ratio and on the production system. Most studies included in the overview (Section 1) assume that about 25% of the total available agricultural residues can be recovered [5], [17], [18], [20]. Hall (1993) [12] presents the potential
Bio-material production (Category VII)
The biomass use for materials (‘biomaterials’) is analyzed in more detail, since it can be an important competing application of biomass for energy. Production of bio-materials can make sense from an energy and CO2 point of view because biomass can have a double benefit: its use can save fossil fuels by replacing other materials (e.g. oil feedstock in the petrochemical industry) and waste bio-materials can be used for energy and material recovery. In case bio-materials can be recycled several
Integration
The final range is composed by two extreme possible combinations (Table 9). The first combination, the overall lowest limit of the biomass potential, is composed of the lowest figure in categories I, II and the upper limit of category III, V and VI, minus the upper limit of the bio-materials. It is assumed that bio-materials compete for the energy crops, as well as the residues. Therefore, the potential processing residues from bio-materials are add to category VI. The highest range
Conclusions
The study presented analysis of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy on the long term. It is stressed that this study is explorative. The focus is not on the exact figure of the biomass energy potential, rather on the underlying factors influencing this potential. The analysis shows that the future geographical potential of biomass energy ranges from 35 to . The result is mainly determined by the potential of energy farming that is the result of land availability
Acknowledgements
Joep Luyten is kindly acknowledged for his support of Section 4. The authors furthermore thank Eric Kreileman (RIVM) for his help on Fig. 2. This work has been conducted with financial help of the Netherlands Agency for Energy and the Environmental (NOVEM).
References (37)
- et al.
Global bioenergy potentials through 2050
Biomass and Bioenergy
(2001) - et al.
Evaluation of bioenergy resources with a global land use and energy model formulated with SD technique
Applied Energy
(1999) - et al.
Evaluation of bioenergy potential with a multi-regional global-land-use-and-energy model
Biomass and Bioenergy
(2001) - et al.
The long term impact of GHG reduction policies on global tradeA case study for the petrochemical industry
European Journal of Operational Research
(2002) - Van den Broek R. Sustainability of biomass electricity systems—an assessment of costs, macro-economic and environmental...
- Turkenburg WC. Renewable energy technologies, in World Energy Assessment. In: Goldemberg J, editor. Washington DC:...
- IPCC. Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,...
- Shell. The evolution of the world's energy system 1860–2060: extracts of a study by Shell International London,...
- Johansson TB, et al. Renewable fuels and electricity for a growing world economy—defining and achieving the potential,...
- UNDP. World Energy Assessment—Overview. United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Department of Economic and...
The land cover and carbon cycle consequences of large-scale utilization of biomass as an energy source
Cited by (547)
Supply costs, energy use, and GHG emissions of biomass from marginal lands in Brittany, France
2023, Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsGlobal bioenergy potentials projections for 2050
2023, Biomass and BioenergyMicroalgae as sustainable feedstock for biofuel production and value-added co-products
2023, Microalgal Biomass for Bioenergy Applications
- 1
Currently at: ECOFYS Energy and Environment PO Box 8408, NL-3503 RK Utrecht.
- 2
Currently IEA, 9, Rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris.