Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures, Part II: Land use scenarios
Introduction
After decades of overproduction in European agriculture and subsequent measures to limit agricultural surplus production and take farmland out of cultivation, the potential of renewable energy from biomass grown on agricultural land has reversed the focus of debates towards scarcity of agricultural land resources. Recently soaring agricultural commodity prices have triggered controversial views about the use of arable land for the production of biofuels as opposed to food and feed.
The European Commission has put forward a proposal for a Directive to achieve by 2020 a 20% share of renewable energy and a biofuels' usage target of 10% in transport [1]. A considerable share of this renewable energy will have to be produced domestically not only for reasons of improving energy security within Europe, but also because of growing competition for biofuel and feedstocks, as result of global trends of lowering dependencies from fossil fuels.
Today some two-thirds of renewable energy in Europe is derived from biomass [2]. It is expected that biomass will play a vital role in providing future renewable feedstocks for the different energy conversion routes, i.e., heat, electricity and (advanced second-generation) biofuels.
Energy demand for transport, which is currently almost entirely relying on fossil oil sources, will continue to experience high growth in the decades ahead. In the EU the transport sector is responsible for around 21% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to curb a fast growing GHG emission profile, biofuels are considered a key solution together with fuel saving vehicle technologies.
Full development of the biomass option requires a thorough analysis of possible consequences of a major shift in land use. While forests today provide the bulk of biomass energy used for heat and electricity, a still small but growing fraction of agricultural land is dedicated to the production of biofuel feedstocks. In Europe this has mainly been rapeseed for producing biodiesel.
Feedstocks for use in current first-generation biofuel conversion technologies utilize conventional food and feed crops for producing biofuels, namely oil crops for biodiesel as well as starch and sugar crops for bioethanol. The second-generation biofuel production technologies to utilize lignocellulosics are not yet commercial. Besides agricultural and forestry residues and wastes, dedicated energy crops grown on agricultural land could play a key role in providing substantial amounts of lignocellulosic feedstocks required for both, the second-generation biofuel production chain as well as heat and electricity production.
The environmental impacts of first-generation biofuels, in particular net contributions to GHG savings are challenged [3]. In Europe land use efficiency of the presently dominating 1st generation feedstocks is low compared to estimated potentials for 2nd generation feedstocks [4]. First-generation biofuels may serve as a bridge to second-generation biofuels [5], which still requires intensive research and development efforts at all levels of the production chain including feedstocks, conversion technologies and distribution logistics. In any case, it is likely that the claim on agricultural land for bioenergy feedstocks will increase.
In the future food, feed and energy crops may compete for agricultural land causing environmental and nature protection concerns. This paper aims to assess available land for bioenergy production for different scenarios for the period 2000–30 and cover the EU27, Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine.
Section 2 describes the scenario approach, methodologies and data used in this study. Key is the assessment of future land requirements for food and feed to satisfy projected consumption levels. Section 3 formulates storylines and specifies quantitative assumptions. Scenario-based estimates by individual countries up to 2030 provide extents of cultivated land and grassland that could potentially be available for production of energy feedstocks including biofuels. Crop residues that may provide additional sources of bioenergy feedstock have been estimated as well. Section 4 deals with implications of the scenario outcomes on (i) land competition, (ii) land use change, and (iii) biofuel potential that could be derived from the available land. The final section presents conclusions.
Section snippets
Driving variables and scenario approach
Competing land use requirements for Europe's food and livestock sector as well as land use conversion from agriculture to other uses, in particular built-up and associated land areas, will determine future availability of land for energy crop production. Future domestic food and feed area requirements are the result of developments in food demand (more specifically population and dietary changes) combined with changes in production intensity (crop yields and intensity in livestock production)
Storylines and assumptions
Future food and feed area requirements in Europe critically depend on future changes in production intensity (crop yields and feeding efficiency) as well as trade in agricultural products. Continued increases in crops' yields and livestock production intensity will free land for energy feedstock production. Environmental and nature conservation concerns as well as consumer demand for organically grown food products however may constrain intensification and limit technical production potentials.
Comparison with other studies
Estimates of land potentials for bioenergy feedstock production range from 20 to 60 million hectares for the EU25 by 2020 or 2030 [12], [33], [34], [35]. The lower end is from the European Environment Agency (EEA), applies strict environmental constraints with the aim of estimating the environmentally compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture and calculates a potential of 20 million hectares by 2030 [12].
Land potentials for the EU27 presented in this paper vary between 22 million hectares
Conclusions
Results highlight: (i) the importance of Eastern Europe, (ii) the potentially large contribution from the Ukraine, and (iii) substantial differences in the amount of potential biofuels generated by respectively the 1st and 2nd generation biofuel feedstock production chains. In the EU more than half of the biofuel feedstock potential is found in the EU12.
Ukraine accounts for about a third of Europe's land that can be freed up. Anticipated strong yield increases in the LU-Base scenario, combined
Acknowledgements
This study has been conducted as part of the REFUEL project funded by the European Commission under the Intelligent Energy Europe programme.
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