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Modelling the dynamics of West Nile Virus

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Abstract

In this work we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) infection between vector (mosquito) and avian population. We find the Basic Reproductive Number \(\tilde R_0 \) in terms of measurable epidemiological and demographic parameters. \(\tilde R_0 \) is the threshold condition that determines the dynamics of WNV infection: if \(\tilde R_0 \leqslant 1\) the disease fades out, and for \(\tilde R_0 > 1\) the disease remains endemic. Using experimental and field data we estimate \(\tilde R_0 \) for several species of birds. Numerical simulations of the temporal course of the infected bird proportion show damped oscillations approaching the endemic value.

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Correspondence to Cristobal Vargas.

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Cruz-Pacheco, G., Esteva, L., Montaõ-Hirose, J.A. et al. Modelling the dynamics of West Nile Virus. Bull. Math. Biol. 67, 1157–1172 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bulm.2004.11.008

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bulm.2004.11.008

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