Estimation of measles reproduction ratios and prospects for elimination of measles by vaccination in some Western European countries

J. WALLINGA; D. LÉVY-BRUHL; N. J. GAY; C. H. WACHMANN

doi:10.1017/S095026880100601X

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The objective of this study is to estimate the measles reproduction ratio for eight Western European vaccination programmes. Because many plausible age-structured transmission patterns result in a similar description of the observations, it is not possible to estimate a unique value of the reproduction ratio. A method is developed to estimate bounds and confidence intervals for plausible values of the reproduction ratios using maximum likelihood methods. Lower and upper bounds for plausible values of the basic reproduction ratio are estimated to be 7·17 (95% CI 7·14–7·20) and 45·41 (95% CI 9·77–49·57), corresponding to lower and upper bounds on critical vaccine coverage of 86·6% and 98·1%. Of the eight evaluated vaccination programmes, four have vaccine coverage below the lower bound and allow measles to persist, and four have vaccine coverage at the upper bound and may eventually eliminate measles.

Crossref Citations

This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by Crossref.

Farrington, C.P. 2003. On vaccine efficacy and reproduction numbers. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 185, Issue. 1, p. 89.

Ferguson, Neil M. Keeling, Matt J. John Edmunds, W. Gani, Raymond Grenfell, Bryan T. Anderson, Roy M. and Leach, Steve 2003. Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, Vol. 425, Issue. 6959, p. 681.

Carabin, Hélène and Edmunds, W. John 2003. Future Savings from Measles Eradication in Industrialized Countries. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 187, Issue. s1, p. S29.

Wallinga, J. Teunis, P. and Kretzschmar, M. 2003. Reconstruction of measles dynamics in a vaccinated population. Vaccine, Vol. 21, Issue. 19-20, p. 2643.

Whitaker, H. J. and Farrington, C. P. 2004. Estimation of infectious disease parameters from serological survey data: the impact of regular epidemics. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 23, Issue. 15, p. 2429.

Donnelly, Christl A Fisher, Matthew C Fraser, Christophe Ghani, Azra C Riley, Steven Ferguson, Neil M and Anderson, Roy M 2004. Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol. 4, Issue. 11, p. 672.

Manfredi, Piero Cleur, Eugene M Williams, John R Salmaso, Stefania and Atti, Marta Ciofi degli 2005. The pre-vaccination regional epidemiological landscape of measles in Italy: contact patterns, effort needed for eradication, and comparison with other regions of Europe. Population Health Metrics, Vol. 3, Issue. 1,

Farrington, C. Paddy and Whitaker, Heather J 2005. Contact Surface Models for Infectious Diseases. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 100, Issue. 470, p. 370.

Wallinga, Jacco Teunis, Peter and Kretzschmar, Mirjam 2006. Using Data on Social Contacts to Estimate Age-specific Transmission Parameters for Respiratory-spread Infectious Agents. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 164, Issue. 10, p. 936.

Grais, R.F. Ferrari, M.J. Dubray, C. Bjørnstad, O.N. Grenfell, B.T. Djibo, A. Fermon, F. and Guerin, P.J. 2006. Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 100, Issue. 9, p. 867.

CHEN, S. C. CHANG, C. F. JOU, L. J. and LIAO, C. M. 2007. Modelling vaccination programmes against measles in Taiwan. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 135, Issue. 5, p. 775.

Borderon, J.-C. Goudeau, A. and Barthez, M.-A. 2007. Rougeole (I). Le virus. Aspects épidémiologiques et cliniques. EMC - Maladies infectieuses, Vol. 4, Issue. 2, p. 1.

Conlan, Andrew J.K and Grenfell, Bryan T 2007. Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 274, Issue. 1614, p. 1133.

SFIKAS, NIKOLAOS GREENHALGH, DAVID and LEWIS, FRASER 2007. The Basic Reproduction Number and the Vaccination Coverage Required to Eliminate Rubella from England and Wales. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 14, Issue. 1, p. 3.

Strebel, Peter M. Papania, Mark J. Dayan, Gustavo H. and Halsey, Neal A. 2008. Vaccines. p. 353.

HENS, N. AERTS, M. SHKEDY, Z. KUNG'U KIMANI, P. KOJOUHOROVA, M. VAN DAMME, P. and BEUTELS, Ph. 2008. Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 136, Issue. 3, p. 341.

Paulo, Ana Cristina Gomes, Manuel C. and Gomes, M.Gabriela M. 2008. Dynamics and control of measles in Portugal: Accessing the impact of anticipating the age for the first dose of MMR from 15 to 12 months of age. Vaccine, Vol. 26, Issue. 19, p. 2418.

Nojiri, Shuko Vynnycky, Emilia and Gay, Nigel 2008. Interpreting changes in measles genotype: the contribution of chance, migration and vaccine coverage. BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 8, Issue. 1,

Smieszek, Timo Fiebig, Lena and Scholz, Roland W 2009. Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, Vol. 6, Issue. 1,

EFFELTERRE, T. VAN SHKEDY, Z. AERTS, M. MOLENBERGHS, G. DAMME, P. VAN and BEUTELS, P. 2009. Contact patterns and their implied basic reproductive numbers: an illustration for varicella-zoster virus. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 137, Issue. 1, p. 48.

Download full list

Article contents

Estimation of measles reproduction ratios and prospects for elimination of measles by vaccination in some Western European countries

Abstract

Save article to Kindle

Save article to Dropbox

Save article to Google Drive

Reply to: Submit a response

Your details

You have entered the maximum number of contributors

Conflicting interests