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Modelling transmission, immunity and disease of Haemophilus influenzae type b in a structured population

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 November 2004

K. AURANEN
Affiliation:
Department of Vaccines, National Public Health Institute (KTL), Finland Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, University of Helsinki, Finland
M. EICHNER
Affiliation:
Department of Vaccines, National Public Health Institute (KTL), Finland Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, University of Helsinki, Finland Department of Medical Biometry, University of Tübingen, Germany
T. LEINO
Affiliation:
Department of Vaccines, National Public Health Institute (KTL), Finland
A. K. TAKALA
Affiliation:
Department of Vaccines, National Public Health Institute (KTL), Finland
P. H. MÄKELÄ
Affiliation:
Department of Vaccines, National Public Health Institute (KTL), Finland
T. TAKALA
Affiliation:
Helsinki University of Technology, Finland
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Abstract

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An individual-based stochastic simulation model was constructed to study the epidemiology of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) transmission, immunity and invasive disease. Embedded in a demographic model, the transmission model of Hib carriage employs the most important social mixing patterns with three types of contact sites (family, day-care group, and school class). The model includes immunity against invasive Hib disease, initiated and boosted by Hib carriage and cross-reactive bacterial encounters. The model reproduces the observed age patterns in Hib carriage and disease in Finland before large-scale use of the Hib conjugate vaccines. The model was used to investigate characteristics of Hib transmission. The analysis emphasizes transmission between children and adults in families while pointing out the importance of pre-school and school-aged children in maintaining Hib circulation. Carriage in these age groups is thus identified as being essential to target for sustained effects of interventions by vaccination.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2004 Cambridge University Press