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Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 February 2006

K. GLASS  and
N. G. BECKER
K. GLASS
Affiliation:
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
N. G. BECKER
Affiliation:
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
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Abstract

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Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3–23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2–17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 134 , Issue 5 , October 2006 , pp. 1092 - 1101
Copyright
2006 Cambridge University Press