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Using the fossil record to estimate the age of the last common ancestor of extant primates

Nature volume 416, pages 726–729 (2002)Cite this article

Abstract

Divergence times estimated from molecular data often considerably predate the earliest known fossil representatives of the groups studied. For the order Primates, molecular data calibrated with various external fossil dates uniformly suggest a mid-Cretaceous divergence from other placental mammals, some 90 million years (Myr) ago1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, whereas the oldest known fossil primates are from the basal Eocene epoch (54–55 Myr ago). The common ancestor of primates should be earlier than the oldest known fossils10,11, but adequate quantification is needed to interpret possible discrepancies between molecular and palaeontological estimates. Here we present a new statistical method, based on an estimate of species preservation derived from a model of the diversification pattern, that suggests a Cretaceous last common ancestor of primates, approximately 81.5 Myr ago, close to the initial divergence time inferred from molecular data. It also suggests that no more than 7% of all primate species that have ever existed are known from fossils. The approach unites all the available palaeontological methods of timing evolutionary events: the fossil record, extant species and clade diversification models.

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Figure 1: An illustration of the stochastic model of fossil finds.
Figure 2: Mid-range of geographical distribution for individual modern and fossil primate species.

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Acknowledgements

We thank U. Arnason, A. Müller and U. Thalmann for helpful comments on the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departments of Biological Sciences, Mathematics, and Preventive Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, 90089-1340, California, USA

    Simon Tavaré

  2. Departments of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, and Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford Street, Cambridge, 02138, Massachusetts, USA

    Charles R. Marshall

  3. Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, Washington, USA

    Oliver Will

  4. Anthropologisches Institut & Museum, Universität Zürich-Irchel, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zürich, CH-8057, Switzerland

    Christophe Soligo

  5. Museum, Universität Zürich-Irchel,

    Christophe Soligo

  6. Human Origins Group, The Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London, SW7 5BD, UK

    Christophe Soligo

  7. Academic Affairs, Field Museum, Chicago, 60605-2496, Illinois, USA

    Robert D. Martin

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Correspondence to Simon Tavaré.

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Tavaré, S., Marshall, C., Will, O. et al. Using the fossil record to estimate the age of the last common ancestor of extant primates. Nature 416, 726–729 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/416726a

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