Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

Nature volume 427, pages 332–336 (2004)Cite this article

Abstract

Instrumental observations1,2 and reconstructions3,4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past ∼150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5,6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Characteristics of the summer 2003 heatwave.
Figure 2: Statistical distribution of Swiss monthly temperature anomalies (compound statistics using January–December monthly data).
Figure 3: Results from an RCM climate change scenario representing current (CTRL 1961–90) and future (SCEN 2071–2100) conditions.
Figure 4: Scatter diagrams showing summer mean temperature and precipitation anomalies for northern Switzerland.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Jones, P. D. & Moberg, A. Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Clim. 16, 206–223 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Folland, C. K. et al. Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 2621–2624 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Crowley, T. J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289, 270–277 (2000)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J. & Briffa, K. R. The evolution of climate over the last millennium. Science 292, 662–667 (2001)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Easterling, D. R. et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81, 417–425 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Frich, P. et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim. Res. 19, 193–212 (2002)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Folland, C. K. et al. in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 99–182 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Aschwanden, A. et al. Bereinigte Zeitreihen: Die Ergebnisse des Projekts KLIMA90 (MeteoSwiss, Zürich, 1996)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Bergert, M. et al. Homogenisierung von Klimamessreihen und Berechnung der Normwerte 1961–1990 Veröffentlichungen der MeteoSchweiz, 67, MeteoSwiss, Zürich, (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Allen, M. R. Liability for climate change. Nature 42, 891–892 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Esper, J., Cook, E. R. & Schweingruber, F. H. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295, 2250–2253 (2002)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Pfister, C. et al. Documentary evidence on climate in sixteenth-century Europe. Clim. Change 43, 55–110 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Jacobeit, J., Wanner, H., Koslowski, G. & Gudd, M. European surface pressure patterns for months with outstanding climatic anomalies during the sixteenth century. Clim. Change 43, 201–221 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Katz, R. W. & Brown, B. G. Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Clim. Change 21, 289–302 (1992)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Wetherald, R. T. & Manabe, S. The mechanisms of summer dryness induced by greenhouse warming. J. Clim. 8, 3096–3108 (1995)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Hartmann, D. L. Global Physical Climatology (Academic, San Diego, 1994)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Enthekabi, D., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. & Bras, R. L. Variability in large-scale water balance with land surface-atmosphere interaction. J. Clim. 5, 798–813 (1992)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Schär, C., Lüthi, D., Beyerle, U. & Heise, E. The soil-precipitation feedback: A process study with a regional climate model. J. Clim. 12, 722–741 (1999)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Rodwell, M. J. & Hoskins, B. J. Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J. Clim. 14, 3192–3211 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Wild, M., Dümenil, L. & Schulz, J. P. Regional climate simulation with a high resolution GCM: surface hydrology. Clim. Dyn. 12, 755–774 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Seneviratne, S. I., Pal, J. S., Eltahir, E. A. B. & Schär, C. Summer dryness in the US midwest: A process study with a regional climate model. Clim. Dyn. 20, 69–85 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Christensen, J. H. & Christensen, O. B. Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 421, 805–806 (2002)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Simmons, A. J. & Gibson, J. K. The ERA-40 Project Plan ERA-40 (Project Report Series, No. 1, ECMWF, Reading, 2000)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Nakicenovic, N. et al. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Johns, T. C. et al. Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Clim. Dyn. 20, 583–612 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Collins, M., Tett, S. F. B. & Cooper, C. The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dyn. 17, 61–81 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Pope, D. V., Gallani, M., Rowntree, R. & Stratton, A. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model HadAM3. Clim. Dyn. 16, 123–146 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M., Hassell, D. C. & Taylor, R. Ensemble Mean Changes in a Simulation of the European Climate of 2071–2100 Using the New Hadley Centre Regional Modelling system HadAM3H/HadRM3H (Hadley Centre Report, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 2001); available at 〈http://prudence.dmi.dk〉 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  29. Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Seneviratne, S. & Schär, C. Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res. D 108 doi:101029/2002JD002810 (2003)

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the climatology and data teams of MeteoSwiss (Zürich, Switzerland) for providing access to their long-term homogenized temperature series, the Hadley Centre (Exeter, UK) for providing access to their climate change simulations, and the PRUDENCE team for access to climate simulations. We also thank our colleagues for comments on the manuscript. The computations were performed on the computing facilities of ETH and the Swiss Center for Scientific Computing (CSCS). This research was supported by the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Union (project PRUDENCE), by the Swiss Ministry for Education and Research, and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (NCCR Climate).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland

    Christoph Schär, Pier Luigi Vidale, Daniel Lüthi & Christoph Frei

  2. MeteoSwiss, Krähbühlstrasse 58, 8044, Zürich, Switzerland

    Christian Häberli, Mark A. Liniger & Christof Appenzeller

Authors
  1. Christoph Schär
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Pier Luigi Vidale
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Daniel Lüthi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Christoph Frei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Christian Häberli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Mark A. Liniger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Christof Appenzeller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christoph Schär.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Schär, C., Vidale, P., Lüthi, D. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332–336 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing